As of October 27, two years will have passed since Taylor Swift released 1989, her “first official documented pop album.” Since her self-titled debut came out in October 2006, Taylor has dropped an album every two years like clockwork, which means #TS6 should be arriving any day now. But if that’s the case, then why hasn’t she started promoting it yet? Is it going to be a Lemonade-style surprise? Below, an examination of the evidence.
~*EVIDENCE THAT #TS6 IS HAPPENING*~
1. It’s time.
As previously mentioned, four out of five of Taylor Swift’s albums have come out in late October, and have done so every two years. (Fearless, the sole exception, came out on November 11.) This October, however, is extra special because the 24th marks the 10th anniversary of Taylor’s first album, Taylor Swift. Fans are quite aware of this, and have begun speculating that Taylor will choose October 23 as her release date to both commemorate that anniversary and celebrate her favorite number 13. This tweet will explain it.
2. Taylor is playing a show on October 22.
On the 10th, she announced via Twitter that she’s doing a concert at the Grand Prix in Austin, Texas. This isn’t that significant in itself, but if you subscribe to the October 23 release date theory, this would give her the perfect opportunity to make the announcement.
3. And another one right before the Super Bowl.
Lady Gaga is handling the halftime show, but Taylor’s new AT&T deal has her penciled in for the night before the Super Bowl. You know what else came out the day before the Super Bowl? The “Formation” video. In that case, Beyoncé actually played the halftime show and her album didn’t come out till April, but if Taylor’s two-year calendar is operating on a bit of delay, that’s a great weekend to get everybody paying attention.
4. Gigi Hadid said she was back in the studio.
Gigi pointed this out during Fashion Week, when Taylor made time to see Gigi’s collaboration with Tommy Hilfiger. “She’s obviously such a great friend, and you know she is starting to go back to work in the studio again, and really made time to be here for me, and I am so grateful for that,” Gigi told Entertainment Tonight. This is a standard enough BFF quote, but remember that a fashion show doesn’t last that long. “Making time” for just one would only take a couple of hours, max—not a big deal unless you were putting the final touches on something major. Remember too that Taylor hasn’t been totally silent this year; she did write “This Is What You Came For” with Calvin Harris.
5. She might be singing on this Kelsea Ballerini snippet.
In September, country phenom and occasional Taylor squad member Kelsea shared a Snapchat from her own studio sessions that some fans believe sounds like a Taylor demo. Kelsea later liked a tweet that said this snippet had nothing to do with Taylor, but it really does sound like T-Swift.
~*EVIDENCE THAT #TS6 IS NOT HAPPENING*~
1. Her label head said it wasn’t.
In August, Big Machine boss Scott Borchetta replied to a fan asking about #TS6 with a tweet reading, “NOPE.” Mysteriously, though, this tweet has since been deleted.
2. Taylor said she was taking a hiatus.
Back in May, Taylor covered Vogue and said that she planned to relax for a little while. “This is the first time in 10 years that I haven’t known [what’s next],” she said. “I just decided that after the past year, with all of the unbelievable things that happened…I decided I was going to live my life a little bit without the pressure on myself to create something.” But she gave this interview in February, and in the same piece said that (1) she could end up back in the studio if inspiration struck and (2) she was using some of that time to enjoy her relationship with Calvin Harris. We all know how that second thing ended, so don’t give up hope that the first one didn’t happen.
3. She hasn’t done any promotion.
In the era of the surprise album, Taylor has up till now kept it old school. She releases singles, teases song titles and track lists on Instagram, and does big interviews in the lead-up to an album release. She’s certainly big enough to pull a Beyoncé, but so far she hasn’t shown any interest in that strategy. If she did decide to go that route, though, this would be the year for it—forgoing a giant press tour means that she won’t have to talk about her breakups with Calvin Harris and Tom Hiddleston or her protracted battle with KimYe.
So which is it? Only Taylor knows for sure, of course, but signs currently point to “maybe, so constant vigilance.” With a new album comes a new tour, and no one wants to get caught trying to buy tickets in the general on-sale.
This article originally appeared on Cosmopolitan.com. Minor edits have been made by the Cosmo.ph editors.