Senator Grace Poe has recently snagged the decisive top position in a follow-up Social Weather Stations (SWS) mobile survey for presidential candidates conducted after the second PiliPinas Debates last Sunday.
In this March 22 survey, Poe garnered a commanding 35 percent from 806 of 1,200 respondents (67 percent) who participated.
Although she actually had a 4 percent drop in approval ratings compared to the initial SWS mobile survey conducted on March 21, the new numbers show a solid upward trend in favor of the neophyte senator.
This is because she also topped the March 18 pre-debate SWS mobile survey where she garnered a 33 percent approval rating.
More importantly, Poe’s approval ratings clearly indicate she has consistently toppled survey frontrunner Vice President Jejomar Binay in all four SWS surveys this March.
Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte for his part also consistently came in at second in the series of SWS surveys on March 18, 21,and 22
But Poe remains to be the big winner, taking into consideration that she was just barely ahead of Binay four SWS surveys ago (27 and 24 percent respectively) which was conducted from March 4-7. This was roughly two weeks after the first PiliPinas Debates.
After-effects of the second debate
So how did Poe suddenly get a surge in approval ratings in the span of three consecutive surveys?
Based on comparisons of the March 18 pre-debate and March 22 post-debate SWS mobile surveys, Poe dominated after impressing the respondents during the second debate.
The data further shows she retained the 25 percent from the 33 percent who voted for her in the March 18 survey four days after.
Potshots against Poe during the second debate also seemed to have backfired terribly as she converted a 2 percent following each from Binay, Duterte, and Mar Roxas II’s former voters.
She also gained 1 percent from former Senator Miriam Defensor-Santiago’s voters and another 3 percent from those who did not respond to the March 18 mobile survey.
Duterte, meanwhile retained 19 percent from the 26 percent who voted for him in the March 18 survey.
He also converted 2 percent each from Poe and Binay voters, 1 percent from Roxas and 0.3 percent from Santiago while also getting 3 percent from dormant respondents.
A closer look would show that Duterte has a similar gain and retention rate with Poe but the latter’s sheer lead in voter base during the March 18 survey proved to be the major factor for her to still come out on top.
Votes by area
Lastly, another key factor in Poe’s survey ranking would be how respondents voted in terms of geographical area.
A quick scan of the data shows Poe led in Metro Manila with 31 percent followed by: Duterte (27%), Binay (20%), Roxas (16%), and Santiago (5%).
She also pulled away in Balance Luzon with 43 percent followed by: Binay (24%), Duterte (16%), Roxas (15%), and Santiago (1%).
Interestingly, Poe (35%) managed to beat Roxas (30%) in his own territory in the Visayas. Duterte (21%), Binay (10%), and Santiago (2%) were nowhere close.
However, Duterte (49%) as expected dominated his Mindanao bailiwick and defeated Poe (25%) decisively in a landslide result. Binay and Roxas both got 12 percent while Santiago got 2 percent.
The SWS mobile survey was conducted in partnership with PiliPinas second debate host TV5. The latest survey has sampling error margins of ±3 percent for national percentages, and ±7 percent in Metro Manila, Balance Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao.